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Just because I think it is very unlikely doesn't mean it can't happen. I was equally skeptical about a summer exchange into a particular Mid atlantic beach town in the summer because you never see anything but Dec-March available online in II but then someone came back to say they matched after about 5 months 6 months in advance. I just would think about making back up plans in case it doesn't happen and possibly a plan to use your week elsewhere before it expires if the exchange you want into Eagle's Nest doesn't happen.